Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 12.586579 14.195365 16.058247 18.406932 21.336979 24.940134 29.820688
2024-10-06 10.647160 12.594382 15.034476 18.412383 23.137548 29.813938 40.619719
2024-10-13 9.191346 11.166035 13.755115 17.547085 23.255347 32.134538 48.611890
2024-10-20 8.107532 10.027912 12.624989 16.583254 22.872692 33.415524 55.375854
2024-10-27 7.307103 9.163820 11.736116 15.783196 22.506293 34.525164 62.381949
2024-11-03 7.418865 9.553118 12.651430 17.845943 27.315514 46.856994 106.091515
2024-11-10 7.217403 9.462644 12.829435 18.737771 30.293214 57.123662 162.723236
2024-11-17 6.665674 8.802196 12.047971 17.851733 29.545984 58.169094 186.790721
2024-11-24 6.341240 8.457380 11.731119 17.742248 30.388305 63.904961 252.333306
2024-12-01 6.025783 8.101435 11.360365 17.477000 30.824392 68.792338 337.490505
2024-12-08 5.786094 7.845337 11.129647 17.441337 31.781821 76.055875 506.318416
2024-12-15 5.602928 7.664639 11.007758 17.597199 33.248743 86.398647 915.542219
2024-12-22 5.334676 7.346316 10.649200 17.286647 33.611059 93.595929 1697.386099
2024-12-29 5.138357 7.132475 10.456178 17.295367 34.865727 106.549061 6472.073216
2025-01-05 4.844648 6.741983 9.919743 16.509227 33.684852 106.347763 13919.515487
2025-01-12 4.560626 6.354289 9.365220 15.631354 32.076022 102.868435 23122.068781
2025-01-19 4.317567 6.024174 8.896710 14.900696 30.787101 100.639365 62472.804851
2025-01-26 4.443815 6.313676 9.572352 16.780927 38.111061 167.404425 NaN
2025-02-02 4.416569 6.340447 9.761570 17.590295 42.453158 234.588827 NaN
2025-02-09 4.206191 6.040770 9.305570 16.786189 40.608910 226.600398 NaN
2025-02-16 4.087784 5.896188 9.141776 16.686684 41.476154 259.944656 NaN
2025-02-23 3.961527 5.732338 8.930422 16.445481 41.728612 287.617975 NaN
2025-03-02 3.865048 5.616644 8.806714 16.413037 42.851213 340.542324 NaN